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Economic, CU Forecast
CUNA’s Economic and Credit Union 2009–10 Forecast available here
| Economic Forecast (September 2009) | ||||||||
| Actual Results | Quarterly Results/Forecasts | Annual Forecasts | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Yr Avg | 2008 | 2009:1 | 2009:2 | 2009:3 | 2009:4 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Growth rates: | ||||||||
| *Economic Growth (% chg GDP) | 2.6% | 1.1% | -6.4% | -1.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | -0.6% | 2.0% |
| Inflation (% chg CPI) | 2.7% | -0.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | ||||
| Core Inflation (ex. food & energy) | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.0% |
| Unemployment Rate | 5.1% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 10.2% |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.30% | 1.94% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.75% |
| 10-Year Treasury Rate | 4.33% | 3.68% | 2.74% | 3.07% | 3.50% | 3.75% | 3.27% | 4.00% |
| * Percent change, annual rate. All other numbers are averages for the period | ||||||||
| Credit Union Forecast (September 2009) | ||||||||
| Actual Results | Quarterly Results/Forecasts | Annual Forecasts | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5Yr Avg | 2008 | 2009:1 | 2009:2 | 2009:3 | 2009:4 | 2009 | 2010 | |
| Growth rates: | ||||||||
| Savings growth | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 12% | 8% |
| Loan growth | 8.5% | 6.7% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 4% | 7% |
| Asset growth | 6.8% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 13% | 10% |
| Membership growth | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% |
| Liquidity: | ||||||||
| Loan-to-share ratio** | 77.6% | 83.2% | 78.7% | 76.5% | 77.2% | 77.1% | 77.1% | 76.4% |
| Asset quality: | ||||||||
| Delinquency rate | 0.87% | 1.37% | 1.50% | 1.60% | 1.70% | 1.80% | 1.65% | 1.50% |
| Net chargeoff rate* | 0.57% | 0.84% | 1.10% | 1.15% | 1.30% | 1.20% | 1.19% | 1.00% |
| Earnings: | ||||||||
| Return on average assets (ROA)** | 0.71% | 0.31% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.13% | 0.50% |
| Capital adequacy: | ||||||||
| Net worth ratio** | 11.2% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.2% |
| * End of period annualized rate **End of period ratio See also our MCUE website If you have any questions or comments send an email to srick@cuna.coop | ||||||||
Get a PowerPoint file of this info here
Copyright © 2009 - Credit Union National Association, Inc.
